Doesn't anyone read the transportation revenue forecast?

The front page in today's Seattle Times has an article on the transportation budget and how lawmakers suggest "the bad economy won't stop" projects. Consider this quote from the article:

"We're not impacted by the shortfall in the operating budget," said Rep. Judy Clibborn, D-Mercer Island, chair of the House Transportation Committee. "Our projects are moving forward as scheduled."

Actually, the Office of Financial Management recently released its quarterly revenue forecast for the transportation budget. It shows that over the next 16 year construction horizon, (an important time frame for the Nickel and TPA gas tax projects) transportation revenues are $1.352 billion lower than projected from the baseline, which was updated during the 2008 legislative session. And this does not yet include the labor and material cost increases that are expected to drive the shortfall even higher.

And the suggestion that transportation projects are "moving forward" is not true. Earlier this year, we released a study, Despite Claims, Gas Tax Projects Are Not on Track, that shows how the legislature delayed several Nickel and TPA projects so far beyond their original completion dates that you have to wonder whether they will be completed at all, especially with the Nickel is scheduled to sunset. 

Earlier, I wrote about how the legislature funded the previous holes in the gas tax projects. In just the last two years, cost increases and slower revenue growth created a $3.8 billion hole in the Nickel and TPA projects. Through a series of budget maneuvers and project delays, the legislature was able to fund the deficits.

But after bridging $3.8 billion, the Legislature is probably out of tricks. They will either have to outright cancel some projects or fund them from a different revenue source, like the general fund. Both of which are highly controversial.

Given the $5 billion general fund deficit and the $1.3 billion revenue shortfall in the transportation budget, transportation projects are in trouble.

Comments

[Jack A.]

"Given the $5 billion general fund deficit and the $1.3 billion revenue shortfall in the transportation budget, transportation projects are in trouble."

You want to refer to that as the operating budget, not the general fund budget. General Fund is only a part of it.