A Sea Change in the Numbers

The Seattle Times today reported that a new analysis done by the UW Climate Impacts Group projected that sea level would rise 6 inches in Seattle by 2050, and would likely climb 14 inches by the end of the century. They said that sea level along the coast would not rise until 2100, when it would increase by 2 inches. The sea level rise there would be offset by the uplifting of the tectonic plates.

Sea level has been rising for centuries, although this would be a modest increase in the rate.

Whenever I see stories like this, I like to go back and see what had been predicted previously. I frequently refer back to two studies, one done by the Puget Sound Action Team in October 2005 and the other by the Department of Ecology in November of 2006.

The Puget Sound Action Team report, "Uncertain Future," said this about the rise in sea level: "This is one of the best understood and predictable components of future climate." In the report they predict, on page 21, that sea level will rise by 1 meter (3.28 feet) by 2100 and Seattle will see a sea level rise of over 2.5 feet. Neah Bay on the coast, they claimed, would see an increase of 1.3 feet. They called these projections the "mid-range."

The Department of Ecology also did a study. The purpose of that piece was to estimate the economic costs of climate change on Washington state.

In that report they said that "Sea levels in the northeast Pacific Ocean are projected to rise between 3 inches and more than 40 inches above current levels by the end of this century."They went on to say that "Tacoma can expect sea levels to rise between 5 inches and 20.6 inches by 2045 compared with present levels." Today's estimate, 6 inches, is at the lowest end of their previous projection.

To come up with their economic projections they used three scenarios. For that the "Department of Ecology has mapped the impact of modest (2’) and catastrophic (10’ and 20’) sea level rise on the state’s present-day shoreline." The new study shows that what was "modest" in November 2006 is almost twice the likely level of increase today. Today, catastrophic is 4 feet, which the Climate Impacts Group now calls "highly unlikely," or one-fifth of the Department of Ecology's previous estimate.

The most telling line, however, is that barely 14 months ago the Department of Ecology claimed that "Like other aspects of climate change, sea levels appear to be rising faster than earlier models had projected." Now that their projections are significantly lower, however, don't expect them to write "sea levels appear to be rising more slowly than earlier models had projected."

The error is in these documents is dramatic. The Puget Sound Action Team overestimated sea level rise by anywhere from 3 to 7 times. The Department of Ecology doubled the likely increase and inflated the worst-case scenario by a factor of 5. It is likely, however, that the Department of Ecology document will continue to be used to justify high costs of addressing climate change.

This data also makes clear how strong the bias is at the organizations writing the reports. Despite claims that their data is "scientific," the errors are always in the same direction. Such a consistent pattern of overestimation points to an obvious political bias.

These numbers show why climate alarmists' claims of "certainty" and "conservative estimates" sound increasingly like "I am not a crook."